Ukraine's former top military commander claims Russia has lost its capacity to mount significant offensive operations, citing casualty differentials and a stabilised front line in an exclusive BBC interview.
Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, forced from his post as commander-in-chief this summer after a public clash with then-defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov, said Moscow's overall losses in the war total six times Ukraine's casualties. When counting only the dead, he put the ratio at 11 to one. Neither Russia nor Ukraine publishes official casualty figures. UK intelligence estimates Russia has lost around 500,000 troops killed since its 2022 full-scale invasion began. The US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates Ukraine has suffered up to 150,000 troops killed by June 2026.
Syrskyi attributed the current stalemate to Russia's unsustainable losses combined with Ukraine's technological advances and a strategy of attacking weak points while containing Russian breakthroughs elsewhere. In the first six months of 2026, Russia seized only 61 square kilometres overall, he said. The Institute for Study of War confirmed this trend, reporting in September 2026 that Moscow lost more territory than it captured.
President Volodymyr Zelensky fired Syrskyi after disagreements with Fedorov over weapons procurement priorities. Fedorov, a popular young minister known for technological initiatives, emphasised drones while Syrskyi says he overlooked critical front-line equipment like unmanned ground vehicles and motorbikes. Mass street protests forced Zelensky to also remove Syrskyi, who was replaced by 43-year-old Maj Gen Mykhailo Drapatyi.
Syrskyi rejected criticism that he lacked technological expertise. Drone usage reached unprecedented levels under his command, including strikes over 2,000 kilometres behind enemy lines, he said. Ukraine created the first-ever separate Unmanned Systems Forces branch, and drones now account for 80 percent of Russia's losses.
He defended controversial withdrawals from eastern cities including Avdiivka and Vuhledar, noting Ukraine faces vastly superior firepower. In 2025, Russia enjoyed an 18-to-one advantage in jets and bombs, plus two-and-a-half times more artillery pieces and shells. Russia can mobilise four million trained troops, he added.
On the August 2024 Kursk incursion into Russia, described by some soldiers as catastrophic, Syrskyi said it was necessary to disrupt Russian offensives and buy time for depleted Ukrainian brigades to recover.
Syrskyi warned European allies to prepare for potential conflict, rejecting claims Russia has no ambitions beyond Ukraine. He predicted the war would become increasingly technological, with AI-based control systems enhancing conventional weapons.