Arab Israeli voters may determine which bloc governs after next week's election, according to polls showing neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition nor the opposition "Change Bloc" can secure a parliamentary majority without them.
Polls suggest Netanyahu's alliance and the Change Bloc led by centrist Gadi Eisenkot each hold around 50 of 120 parliamentary seats, with Arab-majority parties positioned to control 13 or 14 seats. That pivotal position comes as student activists in Nazareth, Israel's largest Arab-majority city, campaign to boost turnout among Arab Israeli voters, who comprise roughly one-fifth of Israel's population.
The arithmetic matters because nearly all major Jewish parties have ruled out coalition talks with Arab parties. Eisenkot has explicitly rejected such partnerships, citing "lack of shared values." Netanyahu's campaign has portrayed Arab political involvement as a threat, with billboards warning of a "dangerous government" and using AI-generated videos suggesting opposition leaders embrace Arab leaders.
Tension between Israel's Arab citizens and the government has intensified since the October 7, 2023 Hamas assault and subsequent Gaza war. Suha Salman Mousa of the Mossawa Centre, an advocacy group for equal rights, says Arab Israelis faced "systematic discrimination and incitement" after October 7, including workplace firings, restricted speech freedoms, and major arrests. Civil society groups report disproportionate budget cuts to Arab communities, though the government attributes reductions to wartime defense spending.
Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has pledged to "Judaise" the Galilee and Negev regions where most Arabs live, comparing the effort to expanding West Bank settlements. Separate incidents have included politicised campaigns against Arab physicians and racially motivated attacks on Arab bus drivers.
Arab Israelis, mostly descendants of Palestinians who remained during Israel's 1948 founding, say they are framed as threats to the state's Jewish identity. Arkan Badran, 23, distributing campaign leaflets, frames the election as a choice: "I call on all young men and women to vote for Arab lists, which represent us, because this is our future."
Two main Arab electoral blocs contest the election: the Joint Arab List and the smaller United Arab List led by Mansour Abbas. Abbas, whose party sits right of other Arab groupings, previously served as a minister in a 2021 coalition government. For this election, he has positioned a Jewish centrist former police official as his slate's number two candidate.
Mohammed Magadli, a news anchor at Nazareth's Radio Nas, attributes Jewish parties' refusal to work with Arab counterparts to Netanyahu's delegitimisation campaign. "It's racism," Magadli says, "but if we're trying to explain why, it's because of the political interests of Benjamin Netanyahu. He's trying all the time to pull the legitimacy of the Arab parties."