President Isaac Herzog faces a genuine dilemma on Sunday when he decides who gets first crack at forming Israel's government. With no bloc securing the 61 seats needed for a majority, the arithmetic is brutally clear: either Gadi Eisenkot or Benjamin Netanyahu will need support from somewhere unexpected. Yet both men and their allies are performing an elaborate dance to avoid acknowledging the most consequential fact in Israeli politics right now—that Palestinian-led parties hold 19 seats, and without them, neither path forward is mathematically simple.
The numbers tell the real story. Eisenkot received endorsements from 67 lawmakers, including backing from the Joint List and United Arab List (Ra'am), which together hold 19 seats. Yet Eisenkot has ruled out bringing these parties into government. Netanyahu, endorsed by only 46 lawmakers, depends on ultra-Orthodox allies, with United Torah Judaism withholding support over the conscription issue while Shas backed him on Wednesday. Neither scenario works without serious compromise or Palestinian support—either directly or indirectly.
The positions being staked out reveal something uncomfortable about Israeli democracy. Senior members of Eisenkot's coalition have opposed any reliance on Palestinian lawmakers, while Netanyahu's Likud has branded cooperation with Arab-led parties as 'dangerous to Israel.' Meanwhile, Joint List member Ahmad Tibi correctly identifies this dynamic as evidence that Israel functions as 'an ethnocracy, not an absolute democracy for all citizens.' It's difficult to argue otherwise when citizens representing 19 parliamentary seats are systematically excluded from government formation despite their legal right to participate.
What makes this situation more troubling is that Arab-led parties are demonstrating serious governance intent. Ra'am, which joined an anti-Netanyahu coalition in 2021 and became the first Palestinian-led party in Israeli government, has signaled willingness to help form a government. The Joint List, while refusing full partnership, has offered outside support to stop Netanyahu's return. Their demands—ending house demolitions, combating incitement, addressing violent crime in Palestinian communities—are not radical; they are the basic asks of citizens seeking equal treatment.
The report suggests that if both formal coalition attempts fail, Netanyahu remains as caretaker prime minister while a new election is called. Analyst Nehru Jamhour notes this drawn-out impasse is likely the actual outcome and 'Netanyahu's preferred one,' as he hopes a repeat election could depress Palestinian voter turnout. This scenario exposes the logical endpoint of excluding 19 seats from government formation: it produces institutional dysfunction that benefits the person trying hardest to avoid accountability.
Herzog should make clear that whoever receives the mandate must negotiate in good faith with all lawfully elected representatives. Whether through Ra'am joining government, the Joint List providing outside support, or even splitting the difference with Eisenkot's minority government secured by Arab-led party votes in confidence votes—the pretense that these citizens can simply be wished away must end. Democracy requires treating all citizens as participants, not obstacles.